Predicting the Vulnerability of New Jersey Communities to Opiate Overdoses Using People, Places & Things: A Spatial Risk Modeling Approach
Presented research on developing a spatial risk model to predict community vulnerability to opiate overdoses at the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy’s annual Research Day event.
Research Overview
The opiate crisis has directly affected many communities across New Jersey, creating an urgent need for evidence-based approaches to understanding and addressing this public health emergency. This research project introduced a novel spatial risk modeling approach to assess community vulnerability.
Project Goals
The primary objective was to develop a comprehensive spatial risk model that could:
- Identify communities most vulnerable to opiate overdoses
- Understand the relationship between place and overdose risk
- Guide targeted intervention and resource allocation
- Support evidence-based policy decisions
Methodology: People, Places & Things
The research employed a holistic “People, Places & Things” framework that integrated multiple data dimensions:
People: Socio-Demographic Factors
- Population demographics and age distributions
- Economic indicators and poverty rates
- Educational attainment levels
- Health insurance coverage
- Historical overdose data
Places: Built Environment
- Access to healthcare facilities and treatment centers
- Proximity to pharmacies and prescription sources
- Transportation infrastructure and accessibility
- Housing quality and neighborhood characteristics
- Urban vs. rural community types
Things: Integrated Data Sources
- Emergency medical services call data
- Hospital admission records
- Prescription monitoring program data
- Law enforcement incident reports
- Social determinants of health indicators
Spatial Risk Modeling Approach
The research utilized advanced geospatial analysis techniques:
- Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for spatial data integration
- Statistical modeling to identify risk factors
- Machine learning algorithms for prediction
- Visualization of vulnerability hotspots across New Jersey
- Temporal analysis to track trends over time
Key Findings and Implications
The preliminary results revealed:
- Significant geographic variation in vulnerability across the state
- Complex interactions between demographic, environmental, and access factors
- Opportunity for targeted prevention and intervention strategies
- Need for place-based public health approaches
Impact on Policy and Practice
This research aimed to provide actionable intelligence for:
- Public health officials planning intervention programs
- Emergency services optimizing resource deployment
- Treatment providers identifying underserved areas
- Policymakers developing evidence-based strategies
- Community organizations addressing local needs
Future Directions
Ongoing work includes:
- Expanding the model to include additional data sources
- Validating predictions against new overdose data
- Developing an interactive web-based tool for stakeholders
- Exploring applications to other public health challenges
- Collaborating with state and local partners for implementation
About Research Day
The Bloustein School Research Day showcases cutting-edge research from faculty, students, and research centers, highlighting the school’s commitment to addressing critical urban planning and public policy challenges through rigorous, applied scholarship.