Using Generative AI to Predict Housing Instability and Model Solutions

I’ll be co-presenting a session at the National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Officials (NAHRO) 2026 National Conference & Exhibition, held October 15–17 at the Colorado Convention Center in Denver, in my role as Director of the DHCR Data Center at the NJ Department of Community Affairs. The session is part of the conference’s “The Future of Housing” track.

Session Details

Using Generative AI to Predict Housing Instability and Model Solutions October 17, 2026 — Colorado Convention Center, Denver, CO Track: The Future of Housing · 75 minutes

About the Session

New Jersey needed a way to anticipate increases in homelessness before they happened, particularly as federal policy and economic conditions became volatile. Just as important, it needed a tool that decisionmakers could use without a data team in the room to build dynamic, defensible models and test possible responses.

The answer was the Homelessness Economic Risk Framework (HERF), built in-house at the NJ Department of Community Affairs. HERF:

• Models risk at the ZIP code level across New Jersey
• Combines dynamic economic risk indicators with fixed structural factors
• Uses a conversational GPT interface so users can ask questions and run scenarios in plain language
• Draws on publicly available data sources alongside DCA-specific program data

Learning Objectives

1. How HERF was built. Learn how DCA created the Homelessness Economic Risk Framework and the types of data sources, both publicly available and internal, used to assemble it. Understand the kinds of forecasts, economic models, and interventions that can be produced with generative AI.
2. A worked use case. Walk through HERF modeling the short- and long-term programmatic and economic effects on New Jersey of the federal “skinny budget” proposed by the President in 2025, and see how to turn that analysis into compelling educational scenarios for different audiences: senior leaders, legislators, and advocates.
3. A road map for your own agency. Leave with a practical approach to using data more strategically to engage and persuade stakeholders, whatever your current experience with data or with AI.

Presenters

Janel Winter — Assistant Commissioner & Director, Housing & Community Resources, NJ Department of Community Affairs

Gavin Rozzi — Director, DHCR Data Center, NJ Department of Community Affairs

Related Work

This session builds on the HERF work I first presented publicly at the 2025 Monarch Housing Associates Conference, and complements the panel on the economic development case for affordable housing at the 2026 Governor’s Conference on Housing and Economic Development. Related data infrastructure projects include Bringing Veterans Home, the referral and tracking system behind New Jersey reaching Functional Zero for veteran homelessness, and the NJ Eviction Guide.